PREDICTIONS

PRE SEASON

our fearless predictions

To actually attempt to predict the outcome of a CART racing season has become an exercise in making informed guesses, such is the progress of technology and the resultant level of competitiveness of the FedEx Championship Series.

Actually, if you’ll allow us a little gloating, we predicted a year ago that Alex Zanardi, Paul Tracy and Michael Andretti would be setting the pace in ‘97.

Andretti won the first race but couldn’t repeat, Tracy won three to take the points lead into the second half of the season before his car let him down, and Zanardi, once the series hit the road courses in the second half, dominated everyone but Team PacWest en route to the title.

So, we weren’t too far off. And we will stick our necks out again. But first, some analysis of what we might see in terms of how the various equipment combinations will do.

Twenty-four of the 29 regular drivers in the Series will drive Reynards with various combinations of engines and tires. A Reynard has won the last three titles, so these teams aren’t risking much in running an evolution of those cars.

On the other hand, if you don’t risk much, you don’t stand to gain much. And Penske has everything to gain. The only team in the Series that makes its own cars, and keeps them to themselves like in Formula One, has a completely new one this year, to try to regain their traditional spot among the front runners. It’s a radical design within the tight CART rules, and its drivers say they love it, so far.

And then, there is the Swift, which debuted last year. Some thought that there would be several of them in the Series this year, but only Della Penna with driver Richie Hearn has opted for one, to join Newman-Haas, for a total of three. If either Swift or Penske can come up with an advantage over Reynard, there will be a lot of races won by only a couple of drivers.

The pace of development amongst the engine manufacturers has been frantic. All four makes have heavily revised (Ford, Toyota) or all-new (Honda, Mercedes-Benz) engines to bring to battle. Reductions in size and weight have been uppermost in the design strategies.

The winner of the most races last season, Mercedes-Benz, has an all-new unit that is 40 pounds lighter and much smaller, which has allowed Penske to custom-build a much sleeker car around it. One fly in the Mercedes ointment to start the season is that their new electronic engine management system has been found to be faulty, and they are having to retrofit last year’s unit for the first couple of races.

The all-new story is the same at Honda, while Ford and Toyota make do with new components. Toyota better have made some major advances, or this season will be a three-engine race again.

And then there are the tires. So much depends upon how they are performing, and last year, Firestone was the best tire over the course of the season, scoring all but four victories.

Of course, Goodyear has not taken that lying down, and we can expect to see a little more even battle up front, at least to start the season. Sometimes, experience gained over the first few months leads to a development that can put one brand on top towards the middle of the season. We’ll see.

So, take all those technological factors, mix in the human ones, and it’s time to look at specific teams and drivers.

It’s a good bet to predict that the winner of the PPG Cup will come from a two-car team. The trend is that way, so that data can be accumulated twice as quickly, and shared.

On past performance, it’s hard to bet against the two-time defending Champs, Target/Ganassi, and especially Alex Zanardi. The mercurial Italian has the same equipment combination, Reynard/Honda/Firestone, that he used to great effect in ‘97, and there is no reason to think that he won’t be competitive again.

Marlboro Team Penske, as mentioned, have a new car and one new driver. Many were surprised when Penske dumped Paul Tracy and not the ageing Al Unser Jr, but when the car is right, he can win races, especially on ovals. Andre Ribeiro is an aggressive driver - just ask Greg Moore! - who will contend everywhere. If the new car and its Goodyear tires are a good match, then it should not be a surprise if Ribeiro wins several races, like Unser did in ‘94.

Newman-Haas’ Swift/Ford/Goodyear combination turned out to be second best in all respects last year, and they are hoping that a year’s worth of development on the car, along with improvements to the engine and tires, will give them that slight advantage over all the Reynards. Certainly, Michael Andretti remains one of the top drivers in the series, and Christian Fittipaldi, rebounding from his broken leg last season, is overdue to win his first race.

Team KOOL Green should return to the winner’s circle with either or both of Paul Tracy and Dario Franchitti, and this duo should always at least contend with their Reynard/Honda/Firestone equipment and ample budget.

PacWest vaulted into the top echelon of teams last year with four victories, and if their drivers Mark Blundell and Mo Gugelmin don’t share too many victories, one of them could emerge as a solid title contender.

And what of Team Canada, aka Player’s/Forsythe Racing? Greg Moore is gunning for the title this year, and with Patrick Carpentier in the mix helping to develop the cars and running interference, this duo should be a factor.

Gil de Ferran was runner-up in the points last season without winning a race, and that kind of consistency is what wins season titles. His Walker Racing team is probably the only single-car outfit with a real shot.

It’s safe to say that the Champion will come from one of the above teams. So who do we pick?

Wow, it’s tough. Will the Goodyear tire be as good as the Firestone? Will the new Penske be the real deal? Which engine has the best combination of power and reliability? Will the electronics problems cost the Mercedes runners early in the season?

Testing has proven little, with the results from Spring Training in Miami showing Jimmy Vasser quickest, ahead of Andretti and Gugelmin. But Greg Moore went back there later and ran the quickest lap of the winter on the 1.5 mile oval.

We don’t see Moore or his team having the experience to win it all this season, so we’ll go with Zanardi, Tracy, or Andretti, with Ribeiro the big dark horse. Don’t put any money on it, though!